According to a September 5 Nikkei report, China has strengthened export controls on rare metals, particularly those where it holds dominant production shares, causing sharp price increases. In August, China added antimony—used in auto manufacturing—to its control list. Uncertainty about the measures has triggered global stockpiling, further driving up prices. This contrasts with declining rare earth prices amid Chinas production expansion, exacerbating supply risks for controlled metals.

On August 15, Chinas Commerce Ministry and Customs announced that antimony and related products would be subject to export controls, with unlicensed exports banned from September 15. Antimony is processed into blocks and then antimony trioxide, widely used in flame retardants for autos and electronics, as well asphotovoltaicclarifying agents for battery cover glass. Following the announcement, antimony prices rose to $25,000 per ton in late August, up over 5% from pre-control levels and more than double late-2023 prices.

Per U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data, China accounts for 48% of global antimony production. Other major producers like Myanmar and Russia face supply risks from civil war and sanctions, fueling market volatility.

In July 2023, China announced tighter controls on rare metals, including requiring export permits for semiconductor materials gallium and germanium. With over 90% global gallium output, Chinas controls caused prices to spike 20% in July. Though exports resumed in October, supply risks persist, keeping prices high. As of August 27, gallium traded at $525/kg, up 86% from June.

Beyond gallium and antimony, Japan heavily relies on China for other resources like tungsten (81% global output), natural graphite (77%), and rare earths for high-performance magnets. Many industry players warn that expanded Chinese controls could further inflate prices, hurting import-dependent Japan. Uncertainty over Chinas export policies continues to pose major market challenges.